The Box Office Blues: A Study in Cinematic Flops and Financial Risks
The movie business is a high-stakes game, and sometimes, even the most prestigious films can fall flat at the box office. This article delves into the challenges faced by cinema owners and studios, highlighting the recent struggles of several high-profile releases. From sports biopics to dramedies and even a much-anticipated generational masterpiece, these films have collectively lost over $100 million, raising questions about the future of adult-oriented cinema.
The Struggle of Adult-Oriented Films
Mark O'Meara, a cinema owner from Virginia, recently faced a disappointing weekend with some well-reviewed Oscar contenders failing to attract audiences. A24's 'The Smashing Machine,' a sports biopic starring Dwayne Johnson, and 'Roofman,' a dramedy with Channing Tatum, both underperformed. O'Meara expresses his surprise, noting the hype surrounding these films, which didn't translate into strong box office numbers.
The trend of adult-oriented films struggling is not isolated. 'Roofman' debuted with a modest $8 million, while 'Smashing Machine' saw a brutal 70% decline in its second weekend, bringing in $10.1 million. Even 'Kiss of the Spider Woman,' a musical adaptation with Jennifer Lopez, failed to captivate audiences, earning only $850,000 despite a $34 million budget.
The situation is even more dire for 'One Battle After Another,' a Leonardo DiCaprio-led film hailed as a generational masterpiece. Despite its global haul of $140 million, the film requires approximately $300 million to break even. Warner Bros. spent over $130 million on production and $70 million on promotions, and with ticket sales split 50-50 between studios and theater operators, the film is projected to lose $100 million. However, Warner Bros. refutes these estimates, citing successful box office performances from other films.
The Impact of Streaming and Changing Audiences
Shawn Robbins, Fandango's box office analyst, suggests that these prestige films have failed to create a sense of FOMO (fear of missing out) among audiences. He questions whether viewers have been conditioned to wait for streaming releases, especially for films that don't feature superheroes or spectacle. Since the pandemic, studios have reduced the exclusive theatrical window from 90 days to just a few weeks, impacting the success of these films.
Robbins believes that audiences now expect movies to be available at home sooner, which has contributed to the decline in adult-oriented cinema's success.
A24's Strategic Risks
The indie studio A24, which recently valued itself at $3.5 billion, has taken on significant financial risks with its new corporate strategy. 'The Smashing Machine' is a prime example, with a $50 million budget, significantly higher than typical indies. The studio has also committed to the most expensive film in its history, 'Marty Supreme,' with a budget between $60 million and $70 million. While A24 mitigated some risks by selling foreign rights, the film's failure will still impact its international partners.
The Future of Moviegoing
Despite the challenges, analysts like Eric Wold from Texas Capital Securities emphasize the importance of diverse films to bring moviegoing back to pre-pandemic levels. With revenues still 20% behind 2019, studios must continue to invest in original IP, despite the higher risk of failure. The industry must adapt to changing audience expectations and the evolving landscape of home entertainment.
